DEMAND MODELING INVOLVING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS METHODS
Abstract
Present work deals with economic-mathematical modelling of demand on household appliances basing on retrospective data on the example of retail store. During the research we analyzed the household appliances market on the territory of Ukraine, which is formed under the influence of market competitive laws ans also we made a review of models and methods which are used to predict the demand on household appliances. The article describes the process of building and applying the adaptive model in the framework of system analysis with the assistance of the double exponential smoothing for store operations household appliances on Ukraine consuming market. During this research we defined the parameters of linear Brown's mode, also the model itself was implemented to conduct point and interval prediction aiming to assess the perspectives of further enterprise development. We used MS Excel spreadsheet and it's superstructures as a software. This model was used to predict the volume of sale during a period of six weeks and gave profound results. We used ordinary least squares to define the parameters of the model.Keywords: time series, the double exponential smoothing, linear Brown's model.
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