ASSESSMENT OF THE ACCIDENT RISK AND CALCULATION OF THE FAILURE PROCESSES IN TERMS OF THE EARTH DIKE OF A TAILING DAM
A problem of the operational reliability and safety of both tailing dams and sludge collectors of the industrial wastes has been considered. Dangers and threats due to the emergency situations have been demonstrated in terms of the world and national experience of the operation of such objects. Certain irrelevance of modern regulatory conditions of the environmental and technogenic safety provision during the operation of those objects has been emphasized. That is caused mainly by the fact that the collectors were designed and constructed in the last century; moreover, the threats are possible due to their long-term operations without proper engineering and technical maintenance. The research has been carried out involving the conventional methods. Preliminary visual and instrumental diagnostic inspections of the object conditions have been performed; mathematical calculations have been carried out; analytical analysis has been applied. Analysis of technical conditions and accident risks in terms of the earth border dike of a tailing dam has been proposed in the context of the object in Dnipropetrovsk region. It has been identified that under current operating conditions, that hydrotechnical structure has potentially hazardous sites of landslide formations and collapsing of the downstream side due to the filtration deformations. Threat degree λ=0.647 and vulnerability degree νу=0.333 of the object have been specified on the basis of the conventional methodologies. According to the principle of intersections of those events, integral evaluation of accident risk R=0.215 has been defined which corresponds to the decreased safety level of the object operation. Calculation and modeling of the probable development of the earth dike failure have been performed. General indices of the duration of hydrodynamic accident and parameters of the washout formation in the structure body have been identified. Overall time for the tailing dam emptying is about 6 hours. The obtained results can be the basis to provide reliability and safety of the trailing dam operation during the forecasting of accident risks and failure consequences. Compulsory elaboration of the documentation concerning evaluation of the environmental impacts of both tailing dams and slurry collectors has been highlighted. The documentation should include calculations of probable accidents and provide action plan as for the hydrodynamics accident within the tail bay.
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