GROUPING OF REGIONS BY LEVEL OF A SOCIO-ECONOMIC TENSION OF CRISIS SITUATIONS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2022-2-169-39-43Keywords:
grouping, region, socio-economic tensions, measures, warnings, crisis situations.Abstract
The article proposes a scientific and practical approach to the development of information and analytical support mechanism for assessing and forecasting crises in the socio-economic development of regions, which includes four main modules. The content of the first module is a spatial assessment of factors of socio-economic tension. The content of the second module is the assessment of the stability of cluster formations of regions. The content of the third module is forecasting the structural proportions of regions according to the level of socio-economic tension.
The content of the fourth module is to assess the resilience of the macrosystem to increasing factors of socio-economic tension in the regions. The scientific and practical approach was implemented on the basis of indicators (indicators) of socio-economic development of Ukraine. The results of the study allow us to conclude that the results of the classification are stable in a dynamic aspect, as the qualitative characteristics of the clusters in 2015 compared to 2020 have not changed. The exception is the balance of foreign trade, which is characterized by increasingly pronounced agricultural specialization. Over the last six years, the unemployment gap has changed significantly. The problem of rising unemployment is becoming more pronounced for industrialized regions with a simultaneous decline in wages and rising wage arrears. There is a significant decline in industrial production in the group of regions with a high level of development with a "substituted" effect in the form of growth in trade.
The grouping of regions according to the level of socio-economic tension was carried out, which showed significant disparities in spatial development. Thus, according to the results of spatial-dynamic cluster analysis, 2 groups were formed: a group with a low level of intensity of socio-economic development and a group with a high level of intensity of socio-economic development. The study showed that 59% of Ukraine's regions belong to the group with a stable high level of tension.
Also, the scientific and practical approach to the development of information and analytical support of the mechanism proposed in the article is relevant and accessible in terms of the possibility of obtaining primary data, which is confirmed by the use of information from modern statistical and other publications.
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