DEVELOPING AN APPROACH TO DETERMINING THE PROBABILITIES OF INVOLVING OPERATIONAL AND RESCUE DEPARTMENTS TO ELIMINATE EMERGENCY EVENTS
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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2022-1-168-100-107Keywords:
probability assessment, reaction, rescue unit, random process, queuing.Abstract
The aim of the work is to develop an approach for assessing the probabilities of operational activities of civil protection units. The existing approaches to modeling operational activities do not fully meet the requirements for the accuracy of assessing the parameters of activities at a low intensity of emergency events. This fact is due to the limited data available for analysis.
The existing regulatory requirements for determining the quantitative composition of subdivisions, taking into account only the number of the population, leads to an unreasonable overestimation of quantitative indicators. It was found that there is a significant unevenness in the level of provision of units with basic equipment, the range of fluctuations for different numbers of the population exceeds 25%.
It was found that the approach to modeling the activities of operational units based on the queuing theory has a significant limitation due to insurmountable difficulties in assessing the parameters of activities with a relatively low intensity of the implementation of threats of various nature in the territory, namely, the impossibility of assessing the parameters of the flow of emergencies with the required accuracy.
The article considers the case when up to three emergency events may occur with the involvement of up to three subdivisions. This case is characterized by nineteen situation. As a result of the conducted research the calculated ratios which allow to estimate probabilities of finding of divisions of civil protection in the course of liquidation of emergency events are received.
The adequacy of the results obtained was verified by comparing the results obtained on the basis of the Markov model and considering the process of responding to emerging emergency events based on queuing. The relative error in the range of low intensity of emergencies does not exceed 2%.
The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of determining quantitative indicators of operational civil protection units in conditions of low intensity of occurrence of emergency events with a higher level of adequacy.
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