INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF THE CALCULATION ACCURACY FOR THE RATIO COEFFICIENT OF THE PAID AND REDUCED FARE PASSENGERS QUANTITY
Abstract
The majority of urban passenger transportation enterprises are unprofitable due to the fact that incomes resulted from the passenger transportation do not cover the costs to their implementation. However, the reasons for the loss of urban passenger transportation are different: on the one hand, the local authorities to restrain the growth of tariffs, and on the other hand, there is an increase in the number of categories of passengers exercising the right of preferential travel. The determination of the share of the preferential contingent that uses the services of urban electric transportation is a particularly acute problem due to the slowdown in development and the disappearance of this mode of transportation. There are two main ways to solve the problem. The first is to reduce the number of categories of citizens exercising the right of preferential travel. The second is to calculate the carriers' subsidies. Mostly, for urban electric transportation, the obtained ''preferential-to paid contingent'' ratio is carried out by an elementary determination of the arithmetic mean value from the measurement results, which can lead to the development of erroneous efforts. To fully assess the unknown parameter, which in this case is ''preferential-to paid contingent'' ratio, a point estimation is not enough. It is necessary to perform an interval estimation, which may be a confidence interval. In the research, the authors have proposed a technique for conducting passenger flow surveys to identify the quantity of the paid and the preferential passengers. Its difference from the existing ones is to use a special sampling procedure formed by the minimum number of properly trained accountants, who are unaware of the route schedules for the greater process randomness. The approach proposed by the authors to confirm the accuracy of determining ''preferential-to paid contingent'' ratio allows revealing the confidence interval of the calculated coefficient value with a probability of 0,95. The approach proposed to assess the accuracy of calculating the ratio of paid and preferential passengers has been checked during a passenger flow survey on the route network of the town of Kramatorsk, Donetsk region.
Keywords: public transport, ratio coefficient, accuracy interval estimation.
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