• A. Batrakova Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University
  • S. Urdzik Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University


probabilistic approach, coefficient of variation, coefficient of conformity, forecasting the condition of pavement.


This article is a continuation of the analysis of methods and criteria for assessing the condition of non-rigid pavement, which contains in its structural layers such hidden defects as cracks, material disintegration, violation of the structure of intermediate layers of monolithic material and others.

The variety of models for assessing the condition of the pavement with destruction is explained by: variability of soil-geological, climatic conditions of operation of pavement; the variety of physical and mechanical characteristics of the materials of the structural layers of the pavement and the soil of the ground; heterogeneity of geometric parameters of pavements in the longitudinal and transverse profiles. According to many scientists to assess the condition of the pavement is a necessary condition for the use of methods of probabilistic analysis. Methods of designing and assessing the condition of the pavement structure must take into account the principles of reliability, including probabilistic methods of reliability analysis.

Most of the considered probabilistic models for assessing the condition of pavement are focused on the design of new construction, which allows not to take into account the patterns of changes in physical and mechanical properties of materials of structural layers and their geometric parameters during operation. However, the most relevant is to assess the condition of pavement with damage, including hidden cracks. Much of the article is devoted to the analysis of this area of research.

According to the results of the analysis, it is concluded that probabilistic methods allow to take into account the heterogeneity of parameters that characterize the stress-strain state of the pavement structure and can be used in models to assess the condition of pavement with cracks in layers of monolithic materials.

Author Biographies

A. Batrakova, Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Department

S. Urdzik, Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University

Associate Professor of the Department


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How to Cite

Batrakova, A., & Urdzik, S. (2021). PROBABILITY METHODS OF ANALYSIS OF ASSESSMENT OF THE CONDITION OF ROAD CLOTHES IN USE: Array. Municipal Economy of Cities, 6(166), 88–93. Retrieved from

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