PATTERNS OF CHANGE IN ACCIDENT RATES IN THE INDUSTRYAL'NYY DISTRICT OF KHARKIV
Abstract
In the article considered methods of analysis and prediction of the accidents and the correlation-regression analysis is considered as a method of research and prediction of the state of accidents on the roads of the Industrial’nyy district.
The purpose of the work is to identify patterns of changes in the indicators of accidents in the Industrial’nyy district of Kharkiv, and to develop a function for predicting the future state of road safety in the studied area.
The statistical data on the number of accidents and the number of victims, who was wounded and died in the region under study in recent years have been presented.
Using the least squares method, was obtained linear regression functions that describe the patterns of change in each of the indicators of the accident rate, depending on the time, and provide an opportunity to predict the value of the indicator for the future. Developed graphs of linear regression of indicators that represent the results of research graphically.
On the basis of the received functions, a forecast was made for the change of accident rates in the region for the period from 2017 to 2020.
The results of the work can be used in the process of developing measures to improve road safety and minimize the number of accidents in the Industrial’nyy district or another regions and cities.
Keywords: accident rate, correlation-regression analysis, least squares method, mathematical model.
References
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