FORMATION OF EXPERT-STATISTICAL MODEL FOR THE PREVENTION OF EXTRAORDINARY SITUATIONS OF NATURAL AND TECHNOGENIC NATURE IN THE LIMITS OF OPERATING POSSIBILITIES
The problem of formation of expert-statistical mathematical model of prevention of natural and man-made emergencies based on the operational capabilities of the territorial unit is considered in the work. During the study, a set of functional constraints was formed that allows to clearly define the physical field of existence of a mathematical model of emergency prevention and to parameterize the number of dependent and independent variables in analytical communication levels.
The established expert-statistical model allows to further develop a methodology for calculating operational potential and operational capacity of a territorial unit, based on the existing and forecast levels of potential danger of natural, man-made, social and military nature and take into account their mutual influence.
Expert-static mathematical model of prevention of natural and man-made emergencies within the operational capabilities of the territorial unit consists of four analytical dependencies.
The first describes the achievement of the required level of security of the territory and the population in accordance with the existing ratio of potential danger from the consequences of the emergency and the operational capabilities of the territorial unit to counter it. The second establishes the dependence of the potential danger of the consequences of the NA of different nature on the time and the decision of a separate expert-analytical task to predict the potential level of danger within the functioning of the territorial unit. The third allows to determine the normalized index of operational capability in accordance with the decision of individual expert-static tasks on the assessment of operational potential and operational capacity and time for their practical implementation in the conditions of the fourth parametric dependence, which determines the time required to reach the appropriate functional level of operational capabilities of the territorial unit.
The peculiarities of this approach is the ability as a mathematical apparatus to calculate the predicted risk indicators to use already known and tested approaches, which in general will provide a high level of reliability of the end results of the use of expert-mathematical model of natural and man-made emergency prevention within the operational area within the operational area under operational conditions.
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