METHODS OF ASSESSING TERRORIST THREATS TO STRATEGIC FACILITIES OF THE STATE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2023-6-180-187-195Keywords:
emergency, catastrophic event, man-made object, danger, threat, riskAbstract
The study highlights the main regularities of preparation and execution of a terrorist act from the standpoint of considering a terrorist emergency as a spatiotemporal process. It is proposed to use the expert method of scenarios to assess terrorist threats to strategic objects.
Ensuring the national security of Ukraine is a multifaceted problem, which includes military and political, economic and informational security, protection of the state border, and civil defence. Solving these component tasks is impossible without taking into account the possible terrorist impact on the strategic objects of the state, which include critical infrastructure enterprises, key transport communications, and military facilities.
The description of any emergency requires a clear definition of the type of catastrophic event that caused it. Terrorist threats at protected strategic objects are possible socially dangerous consequences of malicious actions, i.e., terrorist acts that lead to stopping or limiting the functioning of these objects. The scenario method involves the creation of scenario development technologies that provide a higher probability of developing an effective solution. Scenarios are a set of equally compelling stories, each describing one of the potentially possible options for the future. Intrusion scenarios used in physical protection systems of protected objects consist of two parts. The first one provides a set of variants of terrorist threats, that is, expected actions of intruders against the protected object. The second is an action plan (reaction to the actions of intruders) of the physical protection system to neutralise terrorists.
The process of improving the technology of developing scenarios of terrorist threats will provide a higher probability of developing an effective solution to ensure the security of strategic objects and counter terrorist threats, when possible, and a higher probability of reducing expected losses to a minimum in situations where losses are unavoidable.
References
Diviziniuk, M. M., Yeremenko, S. A., Lievtierov, O. A., Pruskyi, A. V., Strilets, V. V., Strilets, V. M., & Shevchenko, R. I. (2022). Theoretical Foundations of the “Civil Defense” Paradigm: monograph. TOV “AZYMUT-PRINT” [in Ukrainian]
Azarenko, Ye. V., Honcharenko, Yu. Yu., Diviziniuk, M. M., & Ozhyhanova, M. I. (2018). Protection of the state’s critical infrastructure from terrorist influence: monograph. DU “IHNS NAN Ukrainy”.
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009). The Elements of Statistical Leaning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. Springer. Retrieved from https://hastie.su.domains/Papers/ESLII.pdf
Mullin, M. D., & Sukthankar, R. (2000). Complete Cross-Validation for Nearest Neighbor Classifiers. Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), (pp. 639–646). Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. Retrieved from https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~rahuls/pub/icml2000-rahuls.pdf
Tibshirani, R. (1996). Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 58(1), 267–288. Retrieved from https://webdoc.agsci.colostate.edu/koontz/arec-econ535/papers/Tibshirani%20(JRSS-B%201996).pdf
Kobylynska, M. M. (2023). Evaluation methods and models. Separated Structural Subdivision “Professional College of Management, Economics and Law of Poltava State Agrarian University”. Retrieved from https://sites.google.com/view/metodu-ocinki/%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%86%D1%96%D1%97 [in Ukrainian]
Azarenko, O., Honcharenko, Yu., Diviziniuk, M., Mirnenko, V., & Syrytsia, Yu. (2020). Structural-logical model of emergency situation management of terrorist character and its features caused by latent electromagnetic influence on the operational staff of the guarded facility of critical infrastructure. Social development and Security, 10(1), 177–187. DOI: 10.33445/sds.2020.10.1.18
Lipkan, V. A., Maksymenko, Yu. Ye., & Zhelikhovskyi, V. M. (2006). Information Security of Ukraine in the Context of European Integration: textbook. KNT [in Ukrainian]
Wenzel, F. (2012). Decision-analytic frameworks for multi-hazard mitigation and adaptation, Deliverable 6.1, MATRIX Project – New methodologies for multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe. MATRIX.
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. (2022). On Physical Protection of Nuclear Facilities, Nuclear Materials, Radioactive Waste, and Other Sources of Ionizing Radiation: Law of Ukraine of October 19, 2000, No. 2064-III. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2064-14#Text [in Ukrainian]
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The authors who publish in this collection agree with the following terms:
• The authors reserve the right to authorship of their work and give the magazine the right to first publish this work under the terms of license CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (with the Designation of Authorship - Non-Commercial - Without Derivatives 4.0 International), which allows others to freely distribute the published work with a mandatory reference to the authors of the original work and the first publication of the work in this magazine.
• Authors have the right to make independent extra-exclusive work agreements in the form in which they were published by this magazine (for example, posting work in an electronic repository of an institution or publishing as part of a monograph), provided that the link to the first publication of the work in this journal is maintained. .
• Journal policy allows and encourages the publication of manuscripts on the Internet (for example, in institutions' repositories or on personal websites), both before the publication of this manuscript and during its editorial work, as it contributes to the emergence of productive scientific discussion and positively affects the efficiency and dynamics of the citation of the published work (see The Effect of Open Access).
