USE OF FORECASTING AND MODELING METHODS FOR OPTIMIZATION OF HOTEL, RESTAURANT AND TOURIST BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT
Keywords:forecasting methods, modeling methods, economic and mathematical analysis, cluster analysis
The purpose of the article is to determine directions for the use of forecasting and modeling methods to optimize management of the development of the hotel and restaurant business. Types and methods of forecasting are listed. Classifications of forecasting methods were studied and their main groups were listed. The advantages and disadvantages of forecasting and modeling methods that are most commonly used in practice are analyzed. It was determined that the advantage of expert forecasting methods is relative simplicity for any situations, including in conditions of incomplete information. It is noted that simple methods of extrapolation can be used at the initial stage of forecasting to determine trends in changes in indicators. Complex methods of extrapolation can be used in the development of short-term forecasts. Smoothing methods are auxiliary in forecasting, which are used in combination with the main ones. It is noted that modeling methods can be used to determine the influence of various factors on the development of economic processes in the hotel and restaurant business. The advantages and disadvantages of the method of the annual average of the index are analyzed. The content of the forecasting methods themselves significantly depend on the terms of the forecasts. It was determined that when forecasting the development of hotel and restaurant business enterprises, it is most appropriate to use combined methods that combine economic-mathematical modeling and development scenarios inherent in intuitive methods. Recommendations for the use of cluster analysis of hotel and restaurant business enterprises are presented and the results of this analysis are determined. The stages of cluster analysis of a group of hotels and its results are described. It is noted that the possibilities of practical use of this or that forecasting method are determined by the purpose of the forecasting results, the features of the object, and the availability of the necessary information.
Kravchenko, T. V. (2013) Metody prohnozuvannia rehionalnoho ekonomichnoho rozvytku. Economic analysis: Proceedings Scientific publication, 13, 88-94.
Minchenko, M. V., Chyzhov, L. P., & Frolkov, A. V. (2004). Planuvannia ta prohnozuvannia sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku rehioniv : Pidruchnyk. Sumy: VTD «Universytetska knyha».
Sukhorukov, A. I., & Kharazishvili, Yu. M. (2012). Modeliuvannia ta prohnozuvannia sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku rehioniv Ukrainy: Monohrafiia. Kyiv : NISD.
Zhylinska, L. O. (2009). Kharakterystyka metodiv prohnozuvannia pokaznykiv diialnosti pidpryiemstva. Investments: practice and experience, 1, 42-44.
Sarai, N. I. (2011). Problemy prohnozuvannia finansovo-ekonomichnykh pokaznykiv v khodi provedennia finansovoi diahnostyky pidpryiemstva. All-Ukrainian scientific and industrial journal "Innovative Economy", 4, 131-135.
Yunatskyi, M. O. (2018). Ohliad suchasnykh metodiv prohnozuvannia finansovoho stanu pidpryiemstva. Efficient economy, 4. Retrieved from: http://www.economy.nayka. com.ua/?op=1&z=6232.
Klebanova, T. S. (2015). Prohnozuvannia pokaznykiv finansovoi diialnosti pidpryiemstva zhytlovo-komunalnoho hospodarstva za dopomohoiu adaptyvnykh modelei. Bisiness inform. 1, 143-148.
Kobets, S. P., Luzina, A. O. (2019). Zastosuvannia adaptyvnykh modelei dlia prohnozuvannia chystoho dokhodu vid realizatsii produktsii. Efficient economy, 4. Retrieved from: http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=6991.
Zakabluk, H. O. (2018). Prohnozuvannia dokhodiv ta vytrat mashynobudivnoho pidpryiemstva na osnovi metodu Kholta-Uintersa. Economy and the state, 6, 51-55.
Lysohor, V. M., Yaremko, S. A., & Olshevska, O. V. (2011). Zastosuvannia metodiv prohnozuvannia v protsesi modeliuvannia ekonomichnoi diialnosti pidpryiemstva. Bulletin of the Khmelnytskyi National University, 2, 21–25.
Zhadan, T. A. (2017). Teoretyko-metodychni ta prykladni aspekty vykorystannia metodiv prohnozuvannia u protsesi upravlinnia ryzykamy hotelno-restorannoho biznesu. Market infrastructure, 12, 43-48. Retrieved from: http://www.market-infr.od.ua/journals/2017/12_2017_ukr/10.pdf
Hanchuk, A. A., Solovov, V. M., & Chabanenko, D. M. (2012). Metody prohnozuvannia: navchalnyi posibnyk. Cherkasy: Brama-Ukraina.
Vovk, Ya. H. (2021). Naukove obgruntuvannia adaptyvnoi systemy upravlinnia materialno-tekhnichnym zabezpechenniam promyslovykh pidpryiemstv. (Dysertatsiia doktora filosofii). Zaporizkyi natsionalnyi universytet, Zaporizhzhia.
How to Cite
The authors who publish in this collection agree with the following terms:
• The authors reserve the right to authorship of their work and give the magazine the right to first publish this work under the terms of license CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (with the Designation of Authorship - Non-Commercial - Without Derivatives 4.0 International), which allows others to freely distribute the published work with a mandatory reference to the authors of the original work and the first publication of the work in this magazine.
• Authors have the right to make independent extra-exclusive work agreements in the form in which they were published by this magazine (for example, posting work in an electronic repository of an institution or publishing as part of a monograph), provided that the link to the first publication of the work in this journal is maintained. .
• Journal policy allows and encourages the publication of manuscripts on the Internet (for example, in institutions' repositories or on personal websites), both before the publication of this manuscript and during its editorial work, as it contributes to the emergence of productive scientific discussion and positively affects the efficiency and dynamics of the citation of the published work (see The Effect of Open Access).