THREATS AND RISKS RESEARCH METHODS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2023-4-178-269-279Keywords:
emergency situation, catastrophic event, man-made object, danger, threat, riskAbstract
The work systematizes knowledge in the field of threat and risk research when solving applied problems. To achieve the set goal, the following scientific tasks must be solved: analyze the main concepts of threat and risk research; give a description of the tasks to be solved regarding threats and risks; consider the main methods of threat and risk analysis from the standpoint of the technocratic concept; from the standpoint of the technocratic concept, consider the main methods of risk assessment, their advantages and disadvantages.
A threat is understood as a potentially possible event that can lead to harm (catastrophic event), and risk - determines the degree of danger of occurrence or impact of a threat (or a set of threats - a set of catastrophic events) on a specific object (resource, process or system). At the same time, for a specific dangerous (for example, a nuclear) object, the concepts of a certain type of threat and the risk of its occurrence are interconnected. This strict triangular dependence requires a unified (inseparable, interrelated) consideration of these concepts in relation to solving various applied problems.
A systematic approach to ensuring their safety is applied to all complex man-made objects, which includes the identification of objective dangers, the definition and ranking of threats, the assessment of the risk of their manifestation and the preparation of a forecast, which is done in favor of preventing catastrophic events caused by objective dangers. The most effective methods of threat and risk assessment are methods integrated into monitoring systems, decision support systems, and other automated management systems. The events of recent years in Ukraine require the definition of a terrorist threat as the primary and most important one, because in relation to nuclear facilities, under a positive man-made environment, it creates an avalanche-like emergency situation caused by nuclear, radiation, environmental and other catastrophic events.
In turn, this will require the systematization of existing and the development of new methods, algorithms and protocols for assessing and countering terrorist threats at man-made objects.
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