# CONTROL ALGORITHM FOR IMPLEMENTING THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SCENARIO MANAGEMENT AS A TOOL FOR ENSURING SECURITY OF A STRATEGIC FACILITY

## Authors

• O. Azarenko Scientific Research Laboratory and Experimental Center “BRAND TRADE”
• Yu. Honcharenko European University
• M. Diviziniuk Center for Information-Analytical and Technical Support of Nuclear Power Facilities Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
• R. Shevchenko National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine
• O. Shevchenko National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

## Keywords:

critical infrastructure object, scenario management, algorithm, mathematical model, emergency

## Abstract

The article first considers the mathematical model of scenario management as a security tool for a strategic object. Then, it develops the structure of the control algorithm for implementing this mathematical model. The study concludes with the structure of the algorithm and the need to establish basic procedures for its application.

Ukraine at war faces a wide range of tasks to protect the state, including ensuring the safety of critical infrastructure objects (CIO). Many methods, namely scenario analysis methods, can be applied to ensure the security of the CIO and other strategic objects. Based on these methods, the authors develop a mathematical model of scenario management as a security tool for a strategic object. The problem lies in the practical use of the developed mathematical model to ensure the safety of a specific CIO.

Based on the above, the article aims to create a control algorithm for the implementation of a mathematical model of scenario management as a tool for ensuring the security of a strategic object.

For this purpose, the study sets such objectives as considering the mathematical model of scenario management as a tool for ensuring the security of a strategic object, developing the structure of the control algorithm for implementing this mathematical model, analysing it, and drawing a conclusion about the structure of the algorithm and the need to establish basic procedures for its application.

Thus, the control algorithm for implementing the mathematical model of scenario management as a tool for ensuring the security of a strategic object is a hierarchical structure of thirteen blocks (or modules) located on twelve hierarchical levels, connected by direct and feedback links. It ensures the formation of private tasks of securing a strategic object, choosing a scenario management option, countering terrorist influence, eliminating consequences, preparing for a repeated attack, assessing the object’s state, and clarifying private tasks of ensuring security.

For the correct practical use of this control algorithm when solving tasks related to the protection of strategic objects and critical infrastructure facilities, it is necessary to develop detailed procedures for its application.

## Author Biographies

### O. Azarenko, Scientific Research Laboratory and Experimental Center “BRAND TRADE”

Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Full Professor, Deputy Head

### Yu. Honcharenko, European University

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Professor at the Department of Cybersecurity and Information Protection

### M. Diviziniuk, Center for Information-Analytical and Technical Support of Nuclear Power Facilities Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Full Professor, Chief Researcher

### R. Shevchenko, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Full Professor, Head of the Department of Automatic Security Systems and Information Technologies

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Azarenko O.V., Honcharenko Yu.Iu., Diviziniuk M.M., Shevchenko O.S., Shevchenko R.I. 1. Azarenko O.V., Honcharenko Yu.Iu., Diviziniuk M.M., Shevchenko O.S., Shevchenko R.I. Kharakterystyka obiektiv krytychnoi infrastruktury derzhavy (osoblyvosti yadernykh ta inshykh stratehichnykh obiektiv) // Komunalne hospodarstvo mist, 2023, tom 1, vypusk 175. S.160-168 ISSN 2522-1809(Print); ISSN2522-1817 (Online) DOI 10.33042/2522-1809-2023-1-175-160-168

Azarenko O.V., Honcharenko Yu.Iu., Diviziniuk M.M., Shevchenko O.S., Shevchenko R.I. Poniattia zahrozy ta ryzyku, yikh zahalni rysy ta pryntsypialni vidminnosti (stosovno yadernykh ta inshykh stratehichnykh obiektiv) // Komunalne hospodarstvo mist, 2023, tom 3, vypusk 177. S.153- 158 ISSN 2522-1809(Print); ISSN2522-1817 (Online) DOI 10.33042/2522-1809-2023-3-177-153-158

O.V. Azarenko , Yu.Iu. Honcharenko, M.M. Diviziniuk , O.S. Shevchenko, R.I. Shevchenko Metody doslidzhennia zahroz i ryzykiv // Komunalne hospodarstvo mist, 2023, tom 4, vypusk 178. S.269- 279 ISSN 2522-1809(Print); ISSN2522-1817 (Online) DOI https://doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2023-4-178-172-178

Azarenko O.V., Honcharenko Yu.Iu., Diviziniuk M.M., Shevchenko O.S., Shevchenko R.I. Metody otsinky terorystychnykh zahroz stosovno stratehichnykh obiektiv derzhavy // Komunalne hospodarstvo mist, 2023, tom 6, vypusk 180. S. 187-195 ISSN 2522-1809(Print); ISSN2522-1817 (Online) DOI: https://doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2023-6-180-187-195

2024-06-07

## How to Cite

Azarenko, O., Honcharenko, Y., Diviziniuk, M., Shevchenko, R., & Shevchenko, O. (2024). CONTROL ALGORITHM FOR IMPLEMENTING THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SCENARIO MANAGEMENT AS A TOOL FOR ENSURING SECURITY OF A STRATEGIC FACILITY. Municipal Economy of Cities, 3(184), 196–203. https://doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2024-3-184-196-203

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